Predictions for US Election 2016

(caveat)

I generally stay out of politics except to provide evidence to establish or dismiss rumors that occasionally have to deal with political things, like whether Obama removed the flags from the press briefing area to be replaced with gold Muslim prayer curtains (and no, he didn’t; those identical curtains have been there since Nixon or prior).

My particular political leanings are too scattershot to decide on a party and highly critical of conspiracy theories. I would call myself independent from Independent voters, if that makes sense. However, I thought I’d diverge from the no-politics game for just a moment to throw out some ideas for discussion.

Also, I do not blame “the media” for anything, nor do I believe they are organized — because you personally choose your own media. The television I do own is only used as an HD monitor and is only switched to TV modes for severe weather alerts. If all you have is a TV to get your news, and then blowhards at work telling you their interpretation of what the news said last night or whatever, then your strategy for getting news is possibly the dumbest strategy ever and have no business complaining about the media, because you know approximately one billionth of the news out there. Big box news anchors get a finger nail file’s worth of time to whittle away at Mount Rushmore, when they’re not reporting on sob stories.

Note the date this was written: August 21, 2015. No nominees have been named. I don’t have any of the knowledge available to those people reading this after that date.

(/caveat)

I have predicted all of the US president election winners Clinton thru Obama with success, before the official nominations were even made, which began about the time I started paying only vague attention out of high school. I still only pay vague attention, but I’m pretty sure who is elected has little to do with issues than it does just the general image of the person running, especially since Ron Paul was deemed “unelectable” early on and for some reason that hung with him regardless of his position on anything. This is not a rant, just a set of personal, no-stakes predictions along the same level of personal investment as a person making their draft picks for fantasy football for the first time and not even really liking football.

My prediction is Hillary for the win, not only to be the first female president but also to upset the Dem/GOP switching pattern. The two-Dems in a row idea is important, because it makes for an even greater sap story than just how women being elected already is one. Weed being legalized in all 50 will bring previously-non-voters out of the sideline to her favor for a giant landslide. Obama having legalized gay marriage already was good timing in her favor, because that likely will not clog up the debate.

Hillary I think already has the woman vote, which will (a) take an epic amount of votes away from GOP hands down even if done in secret, *plus* (b) enough women who have never voted will emerge from the peanut gallery to vote just because of a potential woman president. “(B)” may not be a lot, but it will be statistically significant in her favor.

Trump might actually be *the* epic Trump-card..

If he threatens the GOP with switching to independent as a ransom (at risk of stealing loads of GOP votes) for getting the GOP nod, he can easily get the GOP platform regardless of his position on issues as long as he maintains the smackdown character.

If he gets the GOP nod and runs, he’ll keep all those GOP votes but I still think all Hillary needs to do is figuratively sit back without even having to campaign, unless she royally screws up in the final debates somehow but even then it would just be a close win in her favor.

If Trump gets the GOP nod and then just *drops out* at just the right timing, the GOP will have to scramble to re-nominate someone and then the Dems will get all the clout because the GOP will be viewed as a party that can’t even nominate someone serious enough.

If he gets the GOP nod and then switches party preference at the right timing as above, to Democrat, he won’t lose any GOP funding because he’s already self-funded, and might actually take away a bunch of Dem votes to *nearly* (but not quite) guarantee a GOP win. Even if he takes a bunch of Dem votes also away from Hillary, it will only be the numbers of party line voters on the Dem side which will have to actually pay attention for once and possibly vote non-Hillary if the image is just deep/shallow enough to not bother with actually doing any research and just trusting a single weekly newspaper recap or a steaming head on AM radio the night before or morning of.

However, the GOP could already have a backup in place that could swoop in as a replacement, as prep for when Trump does make the (planned-and-timed) switch to Dem. While the Dems are scrambling for what to do now with 2 Dem nominees well after the nomination phase has occurred, both parties would be seen for their true colors as a disorganized muddle of children slap-fighting for who has the most toys.

At that point, Trump could switch *again* to Independent and then get a landslide of votes because of being seen as someone who was just playing both sides for the children that they are, and that he is the right person for the American people by cutting through all the crap. I still think Hillary will win, but Trump has a chance if he moves his pieces right.

If Trump does no timed switching/quitting and runs GOP legit, he could still be owed a lifetime of protection for having secured the Dem win just by sabotaging the GOP from within, or else (without intentional sabotage) offering the impression that the GOP has an identity crisis and can’t figure itself out anymore. If the GOP attempts to sue Trump for that, he’ll have all the Dem backing/pardons to get him out of whatever penalties are placed upon him.

I don’t think either side’s win will have much to do with position on particular issues, but rather because of (a) vagueness of overall image, (b) leverage of the identity that is formed by the people who eavesdrop/lurk on what blowhard co-workers rant about, and (c) how approaching-100% of the public seems totally fine with not fact checking anything because they need to do the laundry or whatever.




(As a side note, “trump” is the British word for “fart”. That just needed to be said.)

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2 thoughts on “Predictions for US Election 2016

    • I was completely blindsided by the outcome, but it reminded of a mayoral election we had around 2000, where a rednecky old guy ran for mayor in opposition to a sure-win lady mayor who had been mayor for a long time, but the old guy had amassed a ton of rednecky buddies to campaign among the fishermen and the farmers and their turnout was unaccounted for and he ended up winning and basically needed to be hand-held through the process, and served as a good wake-up call that people needed to actually vote instead of counting on sure-win situations..

      Just as with Obama’s (whom I was not in favor of but turned out pretty good), it can be best assessed of its value after the fact, rather than right at the beginning or in the midst. We can guess at its value or devalue toward the US early, but all of those guesses will not have the benefit of hindsight. The redneck end of the GOP spectrum (by comparison to the snowflake end of the DEM spectrum) blathered along the entire Obama campaign that the Obama-led government was going to “take our guns” or “bring Sharia law to the US” but none of those things even approached happening; likewise let’s not give too much ground to the comparably-alarmist sector of the Dems that Trump will /destroy the environment/ (the individual impetus to protect it still exists as it always had regardless of regulation) or /trainwreck our health insurance/ (it had already wrecked long ago and has yet to be re-railed) or /make fools of us to the rest of the world/ (did you suppose the world had admired us prior?)..

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